Markets / Politics

🗳️ Politics Markets

2,843 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will Trump say "Dairy" during National Agriculture Day events?
100%
Market YES
0%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $6K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 95.8% -4 pts
65/100
High probability that Trump will mention 'Dairy' at Agriculture Day events.
Will Trump say "Iowa" during National Agriculture Day events?
100%
Market YES
0%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $5K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 95.95% -4 pts
65/100
There is a very high probability Trump will say 'Iowa' during National Agriculture Day events.
Will Trump say "Kuwait" during the FII PRIORITY Summit?
99.95%
Market YES
0%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 95.95% -4 pts
65/100
High probability that Trump will mention 'Kuwait' at the FII PRIORITY Summit.
Will Trump say "Never Forget" during the FII PRIORITY Summit?
99.6%
Market YES
0%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 95.6% -4 pts
65/100
High probability that Trump will say 'Never Forget' at the summit.
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during the FII PRIORITY Summit?
99.9%
Market YES
0%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $11K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 95.9% -4 pts
65/100
High probability that Trump will say 'Million', 'Billion', or 'Trillion' 30+ times at the summit.
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during the FII PRIORITY Summit?
99.95%
Market YES
0%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $11K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 95.95% -4 pts
65/100
High likelihood Trump will mention 'Hormuz' at the FII PRIORITY Summit.
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 55% by March 31?
100%
Market YES
0%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $497K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 96% -4 pts
75/100
The market strongly favors Republicans staying under 55% by March 31.
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 50% by March 31?
100%
Market YES
0%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $497K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 96% -4 pts
75/100
The market strongly favors Republicans being under 50% by March 31.
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 60% by March 31?
100%
Market YES
0%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $23K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 96% -4 pts
80/100
Market predicts Republican odds will stay under 60% by March 31.
US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31?
2.1%
Market YES
98%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $227K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 27% +3.5 pts
60/100
Market favors no US military support for Iran opposition by March 31.
Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 2, 2026?
100%
Market YES
0%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $3M
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 6.65% +3.5 pts
60/100
Low market probability suggests minimal expectation of a Russia strike impacting Kyiv in early March
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?
0%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $71K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 3.55% +3.5 pts
65/100
The market strongly favors Trump posting fewer than 140 Truth Social posts.
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?
12.5%
Market YES
88%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $193K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 16% +3.5 pts
65/100
The market shows a low probability for Ukraine elections by June 30, 2026.
Will Trump abandon the Iran war?
35%
Market YES
65%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 41.5% +3.5 pts
50/100
Market leans towards Trump not abandoning the Iran war.
Will Trump make a Twitter Post on March 18th, 2026 to March 20th, 2026?
63.71%
Market YES
36%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 38.5% +3.5 pts
50/100
Market leans towards Trump not posting on Twitter during the specified dates.
Free Elections in Cuba before the end of 2027
21.31%
Market YES
79%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 24.81% +3.5 pts
40/100
Low probability for free elections in Cuba by 2027, with a strong NO sentiment.
JD Vance wins 2028 Republican nomination?
43.52%
Market YES
56%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 45.14% +3.5 pts
40/100
JD Vance has a 41.64% chance of winning the 2028 Republican nomination.
Will North Korea announce a new nuclear-policy at the Workers’ Party Congress?
38%
Market YES
62%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 41.5% +3.5 pts
55/100
Market leans towards no new nuclear policy announcement from North Korea.
Will the Greenlandic Parliament pass a resolution by November 15 to schedule a national independence referendum?
24.42%
Market YES
76%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 27.92% +3.5 pts
55/100
The market indicates a low probability for the resolution to pass by November 15.
Will Democrats lose control of the senate in 2024 and 2026, then regain it in 2028?
25%
Market YES
75%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 26.86% +3.5 pts
40/100
Market indicates low probability of Democrats losing and regaining Senate control.
Will Labour announce a leadership election before 1st June 2026?
33%
Market YES
67%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 36.5% +3.5 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will any AI or algorithm be elected as a state official by 2040 with 1.000 or more votes?
31.2%
Market YES
69%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 34.7% +3.5 pts
45/100
Low probability of AI or algorithm being elected as a state official by 2040.
If the AfD enters the federal government after the next Bundestag election, will §86a StGB be repealed or altered?
20.35%
Market YES
80%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.85% +3.5 pts
40/100
Market favors no change to §86a StGB if AfD joins the federal government.
Will someone be arrested for pissing on Donald Trump’s grave before 2035?
29.16%
Market YES
71%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 32.66% +3.5 pts
45/100
Market suggests low likelihood of an arrest for this act before 2035.
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