Markets / Politics

🗳️ Politics Markets

2,843 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will Reform be in government following the next UK general election
35.03%
Market YES
65%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 38.53% +3.5 pts
40/100
The market suggests a low probability of Reform being in government after the next UK election.
Will Trump's vice president candidate in 2024 be chosen as the Republican Party's nominee in 2028?
43.52%
Market YES
56%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 44.5% +3.5 pts
40/100
There's a 41% chance Trump's VP candidate will be the 2028 nominee.
Will Republicans win the Texas 15th congressional district in 2026?
49.4%
Market YES
51%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 52.9% +3.5 pts
50/100
The race for Texas's 15th district is highly competitive with nearly equal probabilities.
Will new KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun meet in person with Chinese President Xi Jinping before 2027?
70.17%
Market YES
30%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 38.5% +3.5 pts
55/100
Market leans towards NO for a meeting between Cheng Li-wun and Xi Jinping before 2027.
Will Trump force the USA to take a new census by the end of 2028?
24.14%
Market YES
76%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 27.64% +3.5 pts
45/100
Market indicates low probability of Trump initiating a new census by 2028.
Will a NATO or EU country order ISPs to block a US .gov website before end of Trump's term?
27.47%
Market YES
73%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 30.97% +3.5 pts
45/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Texas elect a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in any election through 2030?
44.59%
Market YES
55%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 48.09% +3.5 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve be 600M barrels of oil or more at the end of Trump's term?
23.73%
Market YES
76%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 27.23% +3.5 pts
40/100
Market leans towards the Strategic Petroleum Reserve being below 600M barrels at term end.
Will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve be 500M barrels of oil or more at the end of Trump's term?
33.18%
Market YES
67%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 36.68% +3.5 pts
40/100
Market favors the Strategic Petroleum Reserve being under 500M barrels at term's end.
Will there be a signifikant growth of greenlands population after Trump offers money to each inhabitant?
24.91%
Market YES
75%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 28.62% +3.5 pts
40/100
Market shows low confidence in significant population growth in Greenland after Trump's offer.
Will Joe Biden be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?
74.15%
Market YES
26%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $5K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 24.59% +3.5 pts
55/100
The market indicates a low probability of Biden being named in Epstein files by March 31.
Will the Republican presidential nominee in 2028 win any state Trump didn't win?
23.23%
Market YES
77%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 26.73% +3.5 pts
40/100
Market favors that the 2028 Republican nominee won't win states Trump lost.
Will the Trump administration attempt to restrict trans people from buying guns?
26.27%
Market YES
74%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 29.77% +3.5 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will the Coalition next split before the next election?
48.94%
Market YES
51%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 52.44% +3.5 pts
55/100
The market shows a nearly even split on whether the Coalition will split before the next election.
Will Donald Trump be alive through the end of 2030?
48.62%
Market YES
51%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 44.39% +3.5 pts
40/100
Market shows a higher probability of Trump not being alive by 2030.
Will democrats win the presidency, the House and the Senate in the 2028 election?
38.59%
Market YES
61%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 40.5% +3.5 pts
40/100
Market indicates a lower likelihood of Democrats winning all three branches in 2028.
30-year Treasury yield hits 5.6% during Trump's second term?
38%
Market YES
62%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 41.5% +3.5 pts
40/100
Market favors no increase in 30-year Treasury yield to 5.6% during Trump's second term.
WHo will be the next President of Ohio State?
47.56%
Market YES
52%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 51.06% +3.5 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will a supreme court justice die in office during trump's term?
37.5%
Market YES
63%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 41% +3.5 pts
40/100
Market shows a higher probability for no justice dying in office during Trump's term.
Will David Lammy lose his seat at the next general election?
47.56%
Market YES
52%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 51.06% +3.5 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will the 'Yes' vote prevail in the Italian referendum on justice reform?
44%
Market YES
56%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 38.88% +3.5 pts
50/100
The 'No' vote is currently favored in the Italian referendum on justice reform.
Will the Democratic Party win a majority in the Senate in the 2026 mid-term election
46.16%
Market YES
54%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 49.66% +3.5 pts
50/100
The market shows a close contest for the Democratic Party's Senate majority in 2026.
Will Robert Peters be the Democratic Nominee for IL-02?
10.5%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 14% +3.5 pts
65/100
Low probability for Robert Peters as Democratic nominee for IL-02.
Will Willie Preston be the Democratic Nominee for IL-02?
0.15%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 3.65% +3.5 pts
65/100
The market strongly favors NO for Willie Preston as the Democratic nominee.
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