Markets / Politics

🗳️ Politics Markets

2,843 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will Joe Biden die of prostate cancer by EOY 2027?
21.04%
Market YES
79%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 25.24% +3.5 pts
45/100
Market indicates a low probability of Biden dying from prostate cancer by 2027.
Italy judicial reform: Will the parliamentary list for lay members be at least 3x the seats to fill?
49.97%
Market YES
50%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 53.47% +3.5 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Italy judicial reform: Will turnout at the March 2026 referendum exceed 50%?
24.57%
Market YES
75%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 33.95% +3.5 pts
50/100
Market suggests low turnout for Italy's March 2026 referendum at 30.45%.
Italy: Will Parliament curb prosecutors' judicial police powers by EOY 2029? (unconditional)
32.23%
Market YES
68%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 35.73% +3.5 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Brazil 2026 Election: US congratulates Brazil’s 2026 election winner within 24 hours?
32%
Market YES
68%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 35.5% +3.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Italy judicial reform: Will the two new CSMs share a single parliamentary list for lay member sortition?
32.23%
Market YES
68%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 35.73% +3.5 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will there be national elections in Spain in 2026 to elect a new prime minister?
14.97%
Market YES
85%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 39.5% +3.5 pts
50/100
The market indicates a low probability of national elections in Spain in 2026.
Will Takaichi Sanae visit the Yasukuni Shrine while she is Prime Minister?
31.63%
Market YES
68%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 35.13% +3.5 pts
40/100
Market leans towards Takaichi Sanae not visiting Yasukuni Shrine as Prime Minister.
Will a Republican be elected president in 2028?
40.45%
Market YES
60%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 44.49% +3.5 pts
40/100
Market indicates a lower likelihood of a Republican president in 2028.
Will Trump endorse Vance by Super Tuesday in 2028?
57%
Market YES
43%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 50.5% +3.5 pts
45/100
Market shows a near-even split on Trump's endorsement of Vance by Super Tuesday 2028.
Democrats win Iowa, Texas or both in the 2026 US Senate elections?
45.51%
Market YES
54%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 43.7% +3.5 pts
50/100
Market leans towards Democrats not winning Iowa, Texas, or both in 2026 Senate elections.
Chris Luxon NZ Prime Minister on 1 Feb 2027?
50%
Market YES
50%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 53.5% +3.5 pts
50/100
Chris Luxon's chance of being NZ Prime Minister on Feb 1, 2027, is currently evenly split.
Spread: Cúcuta Deportivo FC (-2.5)
0.05%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $53K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 11.25% +3.5 pts
65/100
Market favors 'NO' for Cúcuta Deportivo FC at 92.25%.
Will a third party get more than 25% of the popular vote in a presidential election no later than 2040?
33.45%
Market YES
67%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 36.95% +3.5 pts
40/100
Market indicates low likelihood of a third party exceeding 25% of the popular vote by 2040.
Will the 2026 Senate Race in North Carolina be the most expensive senate race of the entire election cycle?
20.9%
Market YES
79%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 24.4% +3.5 pts
50/100
The market suggests the 2026 NC Senate Race is unlikely to be the most expensive.
Ukraine war outlasts Trump's presidency?
42.92%
Market YES
57%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 46.42% +3.5 pts
40/100
Market shows mixed views on the Ukraine war lasting through Trump's presidency.
Will Texas elect a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in any election through 2032?
45.61%
Market YES
54%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 49.11% +3.5 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Texas elect a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in any election through 2026?
39%
Market YES
61%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 40.5% +3.5 pts
50/100
Texas is unlikely to elect a Democrat to the U.S. Senate by 2026.
Will any member of the squad who lost their 2024 election get elected to the House of Representatives by 2026?
29.54%
Market YES
70%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 33.04% +3.5 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the end of 2026?
39.95%
Market YES
60%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 45.08% +3.5 pts
55/100
There's a nearly even chance Netanyahu will remain Prime Minister until 2026.
Will Tucker Carlson ever run for president?
27.79%
Market YES
72%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 25.69% +3.5 pts
40/100
The market indicates a low likelihood of Tucker Carlson running for president.
Will any Republican Vote to Impeach Trump in 2027?
37.78%
Market YES
62%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 41.28% +3.5 pts
50/100
Market suggests low likelihood of Republican impeachment votes for Trump in 2027.
Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2027?
33.4%
Market YES
67%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 30.5% +3.5 pts
40/100
Market indicates low confidence in Netanyahu remaining PM by October 2027.
Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2028 elections?
48%
Market YES
52%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 53.36% +3.5 pts
40/100
Republicans have a nearly even chance of winning the Senate in 2028.
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