Markets / Politics

🗳️ Politics Markets

2,843 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will Sticker Mule CEO Anthony Constantino win the NY-21 Republican Primary?
48.68%
Market YES
51%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 52.18% +3.5 pts
50/100
The NY-21 Republican Primary is highly competitive with nearly equal probabilities for both outcomes
Will Trump visit Mexico during his term?
25%
Market YES
75%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 28.5% +3.5 pts
40/100
Market indicates low likelihood of Trump visiting Mexico during his term.
Will Trump say "No Inflation" this week? (March 22)
31%
Market YES
69%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 52% +3.5 pts
50/100
Market is evenly split on whether Trump will say 'No Inflation' this week.
Will Trump say "Armada" this week? (March 22)
47.5%
Market YES
53%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 51% +3.5 pts
55/100
Market shows a near-equal chance of Trump saying 'Armada' this week.
Will the first woman president of the United States be a Republican?
40%
Market YES
60%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 43.5% +3.5 pts
40/100
Market leans towards a Democratic candidate for the first woman president.
What wins in the 2026 Italian constitutional referendum?
1.19%
Market YES
99%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $5K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 41.57% +3.5 pts
50/100
The NO vote is currently favored in the 2026 Italian constitutional referendum.
Is Trump going to shake Beniamin Netanyahu's hand before March 31st 2026?
6.32%
Market YES
94%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 28.95% +3.5 pts
55/100
Market indicates low probability of Trump shaking Netanyahu's hand by March 2026.
Peruvian president Jerí leaves office before April 12, 2026 elections?
28.84%
Market YES
71%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 39.94% +3.5 pts
50/100
Market suggests low likelihood of Jerí leaving office before April 2026 elections.
Sitting US president visits Cuban Government Leaders in Cuba before 2034
43.28%
Market YES
57%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 46.78% +3.5 pts
40/100
Market shows a close probability for a US president visiting Cuba before 2034.
Will Donald Trump OR Marco Rubio visit Cuba before Trump’s presidency ends?
37.35%
Market YES
63%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 40.85% +3.5 pts
45/100
Market leans towards NO for Trump or Rubio visiting Cuba before presidency ends.
Will there be a UK General Election in 2028?
27.56%
Market YES
72%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 31.06% +3.5 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
If Trump becomes president, will Florida constitutionalize abortion?
44.89%
Market YES
55%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 48.39% +3.5 pts
50/100
Market shows a close split on Florida constitutionalizing abortion if Trump becomes president.
Will the next president be a republican?
40%
Market YES
60%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 43.5% +3.5 pts
40/100
The market indicates a higher chance of a Democratic president at 60%.
Will Trump say he “forgives” the UK Labour Party, Keir Starmer or in any reference to them?
27.4%
Market YES
73%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 30.9% +3.5 pts
40/100
Market leans towards Trump not forgiving the UK Labour Party or Keir Starmer.
Will zohran mamdani be a member of Congress by the end of 2034?
33.11%
Market YES
67%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 36.61% +3.5 pts
45/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will there be a third party US president before 2100.
43.4%
Market YES
57%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 46.9% +3.5 pts
45/100
Market shows a close probability for a third-party US president by 2100.
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be the best performing left wing candidate in presidential election 2027 ?
58%
Market YES
42%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 32.85% +3.5 pts
50/100
Market favors other candidates over Mélenchon for the left wing in 2027.
Will the Eurovision 2026 winner have won the Grand Final televote?
41.94%
Market YES
58%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 45.44% +3.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will JD Vance be president of the United States before the end of 2033?
41.15%
Market YES
59%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 44.65% +3.5 pts
45/100
Market indicates a lower likelihood of JD Vance becoming president by 2033.
Will the US Senate get rid of the filibuster before 2028?
23.14%
Market YES
77%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 26.64% +3.5 pts
45/100
The market shows a low probability for the Senate to eliminate the filibuster before 2028.
Will DMK win more than 150 seats in TN 2026 elections?
13.5%
Market YES
87%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 36.31% +3.5 pts
50/100
Market leans towards DMK not winning over 150 seats in the 2026 elections.
DOW 100k by end of Trump's term?
35.39%
Market YES
65%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 38.89% +3.5 pts
40/100
Market leans towards a NO for DOW reaching 100k by end of Trump's term.
Te Pati Maori win 3 or more electorates in next NZ election?
46%
Market YES
54%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 49.5% +3.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will any current National Park lose its National Park designation during the current presidential administration?
24%
Market YES
76%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 27.5% +3.5 pts
40/100
Current sentiment suggests low likelihood of any National Park losing its designation.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119