Markets / Politics

🗳️ Politics Markets

2,843 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will the Democratic party win more than 240 US house seats in the 2026 election?
20.54%
Market YES
79%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 26.5% +3.5 pts
50/100
Market indicates low confidence in Democrats winning over 240 House seats in 2026.
Will a Democratic Senator say or post “glad he’s dead” within 24 hours of trumps death for ANY reason?
39.83%
Market YES
60%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 43.33% +3.5 pts
40/100
Market leans towards no Democratic Senator making a negative statement after Trump's death.
Will there be a second assassination attempt on Trump before 2027?
40%
Market YES
60%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 39.17% +3.5 pts
55/100
Market suggests a lower likelihood of a second assassination attempt on Trump before 2027.
Ukraine holds elections in 2026?
30.57%
Market YES
69%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 34.07% +3.5 pts
50/100
The market indicates a low probability for Ukraine holding elections in 2026.
Will any Trump leave the Republican Party?
47.66%
Market YES
52%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 51.16% +3.5 pts
40/100
Market shows a near-even split on whether any Trump will leave the Republican Party.
Will George Soros live to see the 2029 US presidential inauguration?
56.11%
Market YES
44%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 48.64% +3.5 pts
40/100
Market shows a close probability on George Soros living to see the 2029 inauguration.
If Trump dies while in office, will the market go up or go down?
44.89%
Market YES
55%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 48.39% +3.5 pts
40/100
Market sentiment is closely divided on Trump's potential death while in office.
Will One Nation win more seats than the Liberals+Nationals+QLNP+CLP combined at the next Australian federal election?
20.33%
Market YES
80%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.83% +3.5 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Democrats control the senate on 1 Feb 2027?
49.14%
Market YES
51%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 52.64% +3.5 pts
50/100
The market shows a near-even split on Democratic control of the Senate by February 2027.
Trump claims Hormuz reopened within 72hrs of ultimatum?
7.54%
Market YES
92%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 40.83% +3.5 pts
50/100
Market leans towards NO for Trump's claim on Hormuz reopening within 72 hours.
Will a Republican win Connecticut for President by 2050?
46.86%
Market YES
53%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 50.36% +3.5 pts
45/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will a Republican win California for President by 2050?
34%
Market YES
66%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 37.5% +3.5 pts
45/100
The market suggests a low probability of a Republican winning California by 2050.
MARCO RUBIO WILL WIN 2028 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY?
25%
Market YES
75%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.5% +3.5 pts
40/100
Rubio's chances in the 2028 Republican primary are currently low at 20%.
Will Trump say "Stupid" or "Idiot" during Memphis Roundtable?
34.5%
Market YES
66%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 38% +3.5 pts
55/100
Market leans towards Trump not using 'Stupid' or 'Idiot' in Memphis.
Will there ever be a president of the USA born in the 70s?
41.1%
Market YES
59%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 44.6% +3.5 pts
40/100
The market suggests a lower likelihood of a 70s-born US president.
Will Donald Trump be alive through the end of 2035?
22.68%
Market YES
77%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 26.18% +3.5 pts
40/100
Market indicates a high probability that Donald Trump will not be alive by the end of 2035.
Will I be active in 2030 to resolve my turn of the decade president market?
49.56%
Market YES
50%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 53.06% +3.5 pts
40/100
The market shows a nearly even split on future activity in 2030.
Safe 2026 governors parlay
39.29%
Market YES
61%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 42.79% +3.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will there be another bachelor (never married) President before 2050?
23.18%
Market YES
77%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 26.68% +3.5 pts
45/100
The market suggests a low probability of a bachelor president before 2050.
Will Trump say "Cookie" this week? (March 29)
100%
Market YES
0%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $472K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 53% +3.5 pts
50/100
Market shows a near-even split on Trump saying 'Cookie' this week.
Will the winner of the 2028 U.S. presidential election be taller than the runner-up?
49.67%
Market YES
50%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 53.17% +3.5 pts
40/100
The market shows a nearly even split on the height of the 2028 election winner versus the runner-up.
Will the governor of Minnesota, Tim Waltz, face any disruptions by the end March 31, 2026?
23%
Market YES
77%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 26.5% +3.5 pts
55/100
Low probability of disruptions for Governor Tim Waltz by March 31, 2026.
Will Republicanos have at least two ministerial positions in Brazilian government on March 31st, 2026?
26%
Market YES
74%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 29.5% +3.5 pts
50/100
Low probability for Republicanos to hold two ministerial positions by March 31, 2026.
Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2030?
43.38%
Market YES
57%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 48.61% +3.5 pts
40/100
The market shows a close split on Putin's presidency by 2030.
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