Markets / Politics

🗳️ Politics Markets

2,843 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
If Zack Polanski is leader of the Green Party going into the next UK election, will the PM be Green?
4.27%
Market YES
96%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 24.52% +8 pts
40/100
Low probability of a Green PM if Zack Polanski leads the party in the next UK election.
Will the 2028 presidential election winner be a millennial?
19.32%
Market YES
81%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 27.32% +8 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will the Republican nominee for President in 2028 win the Hispanic vote?
7.67%
Market YES
92%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 15.67% +8 pts
40/100
The market indicates a low probability for the Republican nominee to win the Hispanic vote in 2028.
Will the Trump-Xi April 2026 summit produce a bilateral trade agreement?
9%
Market YES
91%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.45% +8 pts
50/100
Low probability for a trade agreement at the Trump-Xi summit in April 2026.
Will Tom Steyer win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?
11.87%
Market YES
88%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 19.87% +8 pts
50/100
Tom Steyer has a low probability of winning the 2026 California gubernatorial election.
Will Trump's approval rating be higher on election day (Nov. 3, 2026) than it was in his first term (Nov. 6, 2018)?
14.46%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 22.46% +8 pts
50/100
Market suggests Trump's approval will likely be lower on election day than in 2018.
Will the NFP propose a single candidacy for the 2027 presidential election?
5.62%
Market YES
94%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 13.62% +8 pts
50/100
The market indicates a low probability for a single candidacy proposal by the NFP for 2027.
Will the US Senate pass the Digital Bill of Rights by June 30, 2026?
13.09%
Market YES
87%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 22.72% +8 pts
55/100
The market indicates a low probability for the Senate passing the Digital Bill of Rights by mid-2026
Trump launches Berlusconi Visa program?
19.5%
Market YES
81%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 27.5% +8 pts
40/100
Market leans towards NO for Trump launching a Berlusconi Visa program.
Will Joe Biden and Benjamin Netanyahu meet in person in year 2028?
6.48%
Market YES
94%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 14.48% +8 pts
40/100
Low probability for a Biden-Netanyahu meeting in 2028.
Will Andrew Yang run for president in 2028?
18.08%
Market YES
82%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 26.08% +8 pts
40/100
The market indicates a low likelihood of Andrew Yang running for president in 2028.
TRUMP TIRARÁ LULA DO PODER ATÉ O DIA 31/12/2026
6.72%
Market YES
93%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 14.72% +8 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Trump confirmed to be bisexual?
19.38%
Market YES
81%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 27.38% +8 pts
40/100
Market shows low probability for Trump being confirmed bisexual.
Will Trump say "Kaitlan Collins" this week? (March 29)
3.7%
Market YES
96%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 21.5% +8 pts
50/100
Market suggests low likelihood of Trump mentioning Kaitlan Collins this week.
Will Trump say "Gay" this week? (March 29)
100%
Market YES
0%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $15K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 22% +8 pts
50/100
Market indicates low likelihood of Trump saying 'Gay' this week.
Will Federal Agents draw guns on voters on Election Day 2026
17%
Market YES
83%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 25% +8 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will trump somehow be president for more than 8 years?
6.2%
Market YES
94%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 14.2% +8 pts
40/100
The market indicates a low probability of Trump serving more than 8 years as president.
Will the congress of the U.S.A officially declare war on another country before the end of 2026?
10.7%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 15.72% +8 pts
55/100
Low probability of U.S. Congress declaring war before 2026.
"Donald Trump US president at any point between Jan 21, 2029, and Jan 20, 2033?"
18.66%
Market YES
81%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 27.29% +8 pts
40/100
Market indicates low likelihood of Trump being president between 2029 and 2033.
Will Trump pardon Maduro?
14.63%
Market YES
85%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.72% +8 pts
40/100
Market shows low likelihood of Trump pardoning Maduro.
Will Joe Manchin run for the U.S. Senate seat in West Virginia in 2026?
11.95%
Market YES
88%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 19.95% +8 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will there be a UK General Election in 2027?
17.86%
Market YES
82%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 25.86% +8 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu meet in person in year 2029?
11.05%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 19.05% +8 pts
40/100
Low probability of a Trump-Netanyahu meeting in 2029, with a strong NO sentiment.
Will Ed Balls stand for election as an MP before 2030?
10.09%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 18.09% +8 pts
45/100
Low probability of Ed Balls standing for election as an MP before 2030.
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