Markets / Politics

🗳️ Politics Markets

2,843 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will the 2028 presidential election winner be a millennial?
19.32%
Market YES
81%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 27.32% +8 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
If Zack Polanski is leader of the Green Party going into the next UK election, will the PM be Green?
4.27%
Market YES
96%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 24.52% +8 pts
40/100
Low probability of a Green PM if Zack Polanski leads the party in the next UK election.
Will Trump say "FEMA" during Memphis Roundtable?
19%
Market YES
81%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 27% +8 pts
55/100
Market favors Trump not saying 'FEMA' at the Memphis Roundtable.
Will Trump get his third impeachment before 2027?
13.25%
Market YES
87%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 16.75% +8 pts
55/100
Market indicates low probability of Trump's third impeachment before 2027.
Will Trump say "Egghead" this week? (March 22)
10.5%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 19.5% +8 pts
50/100
Market suggests low likelihood of Trump saying 'Egghead' this week.
If Zack Polanski is not leader of the Green Party going into the next UK election, will the PM be Green?
2.05%
Market YES
98%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 25.62% +8 pts
40/100
Low probability for a Green PM if Zack Polanski is not the leader.
Will Trump or his team apologize for the $TRUMP meme coin or state that it was a mistake before the end of his term?
12%
Market YES
88%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20% +8 pts
45/100
Low probability of Trump or his team apologizing for the $TRUMP meme coin.
Will James Fishback win the Florida Republican Primary?
17.57%
Market YES
82%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 22.49% +8 pts
50/100
James Fishback has a low chance of winning the Florida Republican Primary.
Will Reform win a majority of the seats in the 2026 Senedd election?
11.65%
Market YES
88%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 21.29% +8 pts
50/100
Reform is unlikely to win a majority in the 2026 Senedd election.
Will Donald Trump burp into the microphone and then say "Pardon me" during his presidency?
12.3%
Market YES
88%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 21.59% +8 pts
40/100
Market favors a 'NO' outcome for Trump burping and saying 'Pardon me'.
Will the US Mint issue a gold coin with Trump’s likeness by 4th July, 2026?
6.68%
Market YES
93%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 14.68% +8 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Trump sign any cannabis-related legislation during his second term?
50.51%
Market YES
49%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 58.13% -7 pts
45/100
Market leans towards Trump signing cannabis legislation in his second term.
Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?
82.97%
Market YES
17%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $23K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 75.97% -7 pts
45/100
Market strongly favors CFTC approval for real-money prediction markets on the 2028 election.
Will trump be alive until March 10 2026?
99%
Market YES
1%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 92% -7 pts
55/100
Market strongly favors Trump being alive until March 10, 2026.
Will Donald Trump visit Wisconsin in 2026?
63%
Market YES
37%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $193K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 56% -7 pts
55/100
Market shows a 63% chance of Trump visiting Wisconsin in 2026.
Will Donald Trump visit Louisiana in 2026?
62%
Market YES
38%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $193K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 55% -7 pts
55/100
Market favors a Trump visit to Louisiana in 2026 with a 62% probability.
Will Donald Trump‘s approval drop below 40% before US midterm election
98.99%
Market YES
1%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $13K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 73.97% -7 pts
60/100
Market predicts Trump's approval will drop below 40% before midterms.
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
73%
Market YES
27%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $815K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 66% -7 pts
65/100
Market indicates a high likelihood of Trump's visit to China by May 31.
Will Trump visit China by June 30?
80%
Market YES
20%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $491K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 69.5% -7 pts
65/100
High probability suggests Trump is likely to visit China by June 30.
Will Trump say "Doug" or "Burgum" this week? (March 22)
75.5%
Market YES
25%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 68.5% -7 pts
55/100
Market favors Trump saying 'Doug' or 'Burgum' this week with a 75.5% probability.
Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2026?
90.29%
Market YES
10%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $12K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 82.44% -7 pts
55/100
High probability suggests strong belief Putin will remain president through 2026.
Will Trump still be president on January 1, 2029?
77.45%
Market YES
23%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 68.45% -7 pts
45/100
Market shows a strong belief Trump will be president on January 1, 2029.
Will Donald Trump be impeached at least once during his second term?
63.57%
Market YES
36%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 56.72% -7 pts
45/100
Market indicates a high probability of Trump being impeached during his second term.
Will Donald Trump be president on January 19, 2029?
71.3%
Market YES
29%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 64.3% -7 pts
45/100
Market favors Trump as president in 2029 with a 71.3% probability.
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