Markets / Politics

🗳️ Politics Markets

2,843 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will a US President (or Presidential Task Force) confirm an extraterrestrial or non-human intelligence by 2030?
44%
Market YES
56%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 45.5% +1.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 50/100. Market appears fairly priced.
If Trump is imprisoned before 2030, will he serve house arrest but NOT prison time?
71.72%
Market YES
28%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 64.72% -7 pts
45/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 45/100. NO side may be undervalued.
Will Trump ever serve time in prison due to his actions?
33%
Market YES
67%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 36.5% +3.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will a US president be removed from office early for any reason through 2029?
22.48%
Market YES
78%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 25.98% +3.5 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Republicans win a 2026 US Senate election in a state Kamala won?
35.24%
Market YES
65%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 38.74% +3.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Republicans win at least one of ME/MN/NC Senate seats in 2026?
31.92%
Market YES
68%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 35.42% +3.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Democratic House seats after 2026 election? (200-250, linear)
60.79%
Market YES
39%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 51.79% -9 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
How many House seats will the Democrats flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]
29.49%
Market YES
71%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 32.99% +3.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Another Donald Trump assassination attempt disclosed?
55.18%
Market YES
45%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 48.68% -6.5 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on April 3, 2026?
7%
Market YES
93%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $7K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 11.5% +4.5 pts
60/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 60/100. Market appears fairly priced.
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on April 3, 2026?
45%
Market YES
55%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $47K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 41.5% Fair
60/100
Market favors Trump's approval rating to be below 40.4% on April 3, 2026.
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 41.0 on April 3, 2026?
0.6%
Market YES
99%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $5K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 5.1% +4.5 pts
60/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 60/100. Market appears fairly priced.
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 39.0 on April 3, 2026?
8.3%
Market YES
92%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $6K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 12.8% +4.5 pts
60/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 60/100. Market appears fairly priced.
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on April 3, 2026?
39.5%
Market YES
61%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $53K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 37% Fair
60/100
Market favors Trump's approval rating to be outside 39.5-39.9 on April 3, 2026.
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on April 3, 2026?
2.25%
Market YES
98%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 6.75% +4.5 pts
60/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 60/100. Market appears fairly priced.
TRUMP TIRARÁ LULA DO PODER ATÉ O DIA 31/12/2026
6.72%
Market YES
93%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 14.72% +8 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Chuck Schumer announce he’s not running for reelection before EOY 2027?
59.44%
Market YES
41%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 52.94% -6.5 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Democrats have senate majority before 1 November 2026?
4.03%
Market YES
96%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 12.03% +8 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Republican Senate seats after 2026 election? (45-55, linear)
46.94%
Market YES
53%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 50.44% +3.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Polanski be leader of the Green Party going into the next UK general election?
83.7%
Market YES
16%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 74.7% -9 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will the Libertarian Party candidate for President receive >1.5% popular vote in the 2028 US Election?
27.64%
Market YES
72%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 31.14% +3.5 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will the jet plane gifted by Qatar to the US be transferred to the Trump presidential library (or similar) by 2029?
47%
Market YES
53%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 50.5% +3.5 pts
45/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Brazil 2026 Election: Geraldo Alckmin confirmed as Lula's 2026 vice presidential running mate?
89.57%
Market YES
10%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 80.57% -9 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Democrats win the 2026 Florida Special Senate Election?
50.99%
Market YES
49%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 44.49% -6.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
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