🔬 Science & Health Markets

Did Lyme disease come from a laboratory?

4.87%

Market YES

95%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 8.37% +3.5 pts

45/100

The market strongly favors that Lyme disease did not come from a laboratory.

Will anyone be killed by falling space debris before the end of 2032?

8.84%

Market YES

91%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 12.34% +3.5 pts

50/100

Low probability of fatalities from falling space debris before 2032.

Will there be 100 people in space at the same time before 2030?

10.56%

Market YES

89%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $9K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 14.06% +3.5 pts

50/100

Low probability of 100 people being in space simultaneously before 2030.

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

49%

Market YES

51%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $29K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 52.5% +3.5 pts

55/100

Market shows a near-even split on Luigi Magione's defense claim.

Will Century High School (MN) qualify for Science Olympiad Nationals in 2027?

4.73%

Market YES

95%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 32.82% +3.5 pts

45/100

Century High School has a low probability of qualifying for Science Olympiad Nationals in 2027.

Will NASA assign asteroid YR4 an impact probability of ≥4.0% before June 2029?

2.48%

Market YES

98%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $18K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 5.98% +3.5 pts

50/100

Low probability of NASA assigning asteroid YR4 an impact risk of ≥4.0% before June 2029.

[ACX 2026] Will the FDA approve a psilocybin treatment during 2026?

13.94%

Market YES

86%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $8K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 17.44% +3.5 pts

55/100

The market indicates low likelihood for FDA approval of psilocybin treatment in 2026.

Will the FDA approved a drug that claims to reduce the number of hours of sleep you need by 2040?

21.13%

Market YES

79%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 21.44% +3.5 pts

50/100

The market indicates a low probability of FDA approval for the sleep-reducing drug by 2040.

Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?

19.3%

Market YES

81%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $31K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 24.42% +3.5 pts

50/100

Low market probability for a WHO H5N1 pandemic declaration before 2030.

Pythom Space achieves successful launch by end of Q1 2026?

1%

Market YES

99%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 4.5% +3.5 pts

55/100

The market strongly favors a NO outcome for Pythom Space's launch by Q1 2026.

Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?

36.5%

Market YES

64%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $13K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 40% +3.5 pts

45/100

Market leans towards more mass sent uphill than downhill by 2050.

Will NASA announce that there is life on K2-18b with a high degree probability before January 1st, 2027?

1.97%

Market YES

98%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 5.47% +3.5 pts

60/100

The market indicates a low probability of NASA announcing life on K2-18b by 2027.

NASA confirms aliens before 2027?

3.02%

Market YES

97%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $59K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 8.5% +3.5 pts

55/100

Low probability of NASA confirming aliens before 2027.

Will carbon removal be pivotal in mitigating climate change?

66.92%

Market YES

33%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $34K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 64.42% -2.5 pts

45/100

The market indicates a strong belief that carbon removal will be crucial for climate change mitigati

Will GTA 6 require more than 200gb of space on PC.

73.6%

Market YES

26%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 71.1% -2.5 pts

55/100

Market predicts GTA 6 will need over 200GB of PC space with high confidence.

Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on March 24?

0.1%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $10K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 49.5% -2.5 pts

60/100

The market shows a close probability for Denver's temperature on March 24.

Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on March 24?

99.9%

Market YES

0%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $15K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 13% +2.5 pts

60/100

Market predicts a low chance of Denver's temperature reaching 78-79°F on March 24.

Will my Biology AAC Average be 100(rounded) by the end of the 2025-2025 school year?

63%

Market YES

37%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 52.25% -2.5 pts

60/100

The market shows a slight favor towards achieving a Biology AAC Average of 100.

Biological test for early detection of Parkinson's Disease by 2028

95.04%

Market YES

5%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 92.54% -2.5 pts

45/100

High probability for a biological test for early Parkinson's detection by 2028.

Health issues from 100% Huel diet discovered by 2035?

69.61%

Market YES

30%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $35K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 67.42% -2.5 pts

45/100

There is a 69.92% chance health issues from a 100% Huel diet will be discovered by 2035.

Will NASA's Artemis 3 mission be successful?

78.63%

Market YES

21%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 76.13% -2.5 pts

45/100

The market indicates a high probability of success for NASA's Artemis 3 mission.

Will NASA's Artemis II mission successfully launch by May 1st, 2026?

85%

Market YES

15%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $5K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 57.99% -2.5 pts

60/100

The market indicates a 60.49% chance of Artemis II launching by May 1, 2026.

[ACX 2026] Will NASA's Artemis II complete its mission successfully before 2027?

88.68%

Market YES

11%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $38K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 87.46% -2.5 pts

55/100

High probability for Artemis II's successful mission completion before 2027.

Will International Space Station be in orbit on January 1, 2030?

74.59%

Market YES

25%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 72.09% -2.5 pts

45/100

There's a 74.59% chance the ISS will still be in orbit by January 1, 2030.