Events › Other › Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be Time person of the …
Other 1 platform 4 markets

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be Time person of the year before 2100?

Combined AI YES
14.8%
Avg Confidence
48/100
Combined Volume
$27K
Platform Comparison
Manifold
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be Time person of the year before 210…
14.13%
19.13%
AI YES
+5
Edge pts
45
Confidence
—
Volume
Manifold
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be found to have committed fraud befo…
5.83%
8.83%
AI YES
+3
Edge pts
50
Confidence
$22K
Volume
Manifold
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get fully blaked before 2027?…
18.76%
21.76%
AI YES
+3
Edge pts
50
Confidence
$3K
Volume
Manifold
Will I be Time's Person of the Year by 2099?…
4.40%
9.40%
AI YES
+5
Edge pts
45
Confidence
—
Volume
Platform Comparison
Platform Market YES AI YES Edge Confidence Volume
Manifold
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be Time person of the year befor…
 14.13% 19.13% +5
45
—
Manifold
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be found to have committed fraud…
near 		5.83% 8.83% +3
50
$22K
Manifold
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get fully blaked before 2027?…
near 		18.76% 21.76% +3
50
$3K
Manifold
Will I be Time's Person of the Year by 2099?…
near 		4.40% 9.40% +5
45
—
Odds by Platform
Manifold
YES 14.13% NO 85.87%
Manifold
YES 5.83% NO 94.17%
Manifold
YES 18.76% NO 81.24%
Manifold
YES 4.40% NO 95.60%
Spread: 14.4 pts — platforms disagree significantly.
⚡ AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
  • 2 The probabilities suggest low expectations of fraud allegations.
  • 3 Market confidence is moderate, indicating some uncertainty.
  • 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments.
  • 5 The edge indicates the market is fairly priced based on current data.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Event Info
Category Other
Platforms 1 platform
Markets 4 markets
Markets on this Event
Manifold 14.13%
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be Time person of the year before 210…
Manifold 5.83%
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be found to have committed fraud befo…
Manifold 18.76%
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get fully blaked before 2027?…
Manifold 4.40%
Will I be Time's Person of the Year by 2099?…
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