Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Platform Comparison

Manifold

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about U…

94.00%

91.00%

AI YES

-3

Edge pts

Confidence

$9.5M

Volume

Detail Trade →

Platform Comparison

Platform	Market YES	AI YES	Edge	Confidence	Volume
Manifold Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet ab…	94.00%	91.00%	-3	50	$9.5M	Detail Trade →

Odds by Platform

Manifold

YES 94.00% NO 6.00%

⚡ AI Market Analysis

1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly in favor of Yudkowsky's position.
2 The probability gap between YES and NO indicates strong confidence in the outcome.
3 Market pricing suggests that participants believe the bet is fairly valued.
4 The time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
5 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent engagement from market participants.