Markets / Crypto / Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whethe...
Manifold Crypto Expires in 951 days OPEN

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?

5.95%
Market YES
94.05%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
10.95%
AI YES
45
Confidence
45
Reliability
Market appears fairly priced Edge: +5 pts

Low probability of Bryan Caplan winning his bet on AI passing exams in 2029.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Bryan Caplan winning his bet, with a 94.05% probability of NO. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating limited confidence in AI's capabilities to pass exams by 2029.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
  • 2 The market probability suggests skepticism about AI's exam capabilities.
  • 3 The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher, indicating some optimism.
  • 4 The edge of 5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
  • 5 Time until expiry is significant, allowing for potential developments.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Advancements in AI technology and exam preparation methods
Changes in the criteria or difficulty of the exams
New research or evidence supporting AI's exam performance
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $70,826
Liquidity $0
Resolves 31 Jan 2029
Status Open
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