DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?

Market favors a NO outcome for DeepSeek V4 release by March 15.

The prediction market shows a strong inclination towards a NO outcome, with 79.5% probability against a YES at 20.5%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a consensus that the release may not occur by the specified date.

• 1 Current market probability heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the NO prediction.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 519 hours, adding urgency.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by March 15, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.

For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.

The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.