DeepSeek V4 released by March 21?

Market shows low probability for DeepSeek V4 release by March 21.

The prediction market indicates a 2.4% chance of the DeepSeek V4 release by March 21, with a strong consensus against it. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 5.9%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 60/100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap suggests a well-priced market with little room for adjustment.
• 3 Historical trends indicate a low frequency of timely crypto project releases.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, with no significant fluctuations in betting volume.
• 5 Time pressure is a factor, with only 74 hours remaining until the deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by March 21, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.

The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.

Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.

For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to