DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?

The market is nearly evenly split on the release of DeepSeek V4 by March 31.

With a market probability of 48.5% for a YES and 51.5% for a NO, opinions are closely divided on the release timeline. The Pulse AI probability slightly favors a YES at 51.5%, indicating some optimism, but overall confidence remains moderate at 60/100. The time to expiry is substantial at 506 hours, allowing for potential developments to influence the market.

• 1 Current sentiment is closely balanced, reflecting uncertainty.
• 2 The market probability suggests a nearly even split in expectations.
• 3 Pulse AI shows a slight edge towards a YES outcome.
• 4 Confidence level indicates moderate belief in the predictions.
• 5 Time until expiry allows for significant changes in the situation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.

For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.

The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.