Game 4: Ends in Daytime?

Market favors a NO outcome for Game 4 ending in daytime.

The prediction market indicates a 66.5% probability that Game 4 will not end in daytime, while the Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for a YES outcome at 38.5%. With a confidence level of 60/100 and only 6 hours until expiry, the market appears to be fairly priced with a notable edge of 5.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards NO.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly more optimistic view for YES outcomes.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate at 60/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is limited, creating urgency in decision-making.
• 5 The edge of 5 suggests the market is well-aligned with expectations.

This market is about whether Game 4 ends during the daytime phase of the Dota 2 day/night cycle. In Dota 2, the day/night cycle alternates every 5 minutes (daytime runs from 0:00–5:00, 10:00–15:00, 20:00–25:00, and so on, while nighttime runs from 5:00–10:00, 15:00–20:00, 25:00–30:00, and so on).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the game-ending action (Ancient destruction or midgame forfeit) occurs during a daytime phase of the base in-game clock. This market will resolve to "No" if the game ends during a nighttime phase. Temporary nighttime effects caused by hero abilities (e.g., Night Stalker's Dark Ascension) do not affect resolution, only the base day/night cycle timer is considered.

If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If Game 4 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If Game 4 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Game 4 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50.

If Game 4 is remade, resolution will be based on the remade game.

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