GPT-5.3 released by February 20, 2026?

Market strongly favors that GPT-5.3 will not be released by February 20, 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 100% probability that GPT-5.3 will not be released by the specified date, aligning with the Pulse AI's assessment of a 99% chance of a NO outcome. With a confidence level of 90/100, the market appears to be fairly priced, suggesting a strong consensus against the release of GPT-5.3 by the deadline.

• 1 Current market sentiment overwhelmingly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Historical trends suggest delays in major AI releases are common.
• 3 Liquidity in this market appears stable with clear pricing.
• 4 The confidence level indicates strong agreement among participants.
• 5 Time pressure is uncertain, which may affect future probabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

GPT-5.3 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.3, or a general-purpose variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.2, similar to the core-version progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2.

Model releases that do not resemble this core version progression, such as task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), reasoning models of the o-series family, as well as products labeled GPT-6 or similar, will not qualify for this market.

For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.