GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026?

High probability for GPT-5.3 release by March 15, 2026.

The market shows a strong consensus with a 99.95% probability for the release of GPT-5.3 by the specified date. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI's assessment of 96.95%, indicating a high level of confidence in this prediction. The edge of -3 suggests that the market is fairly priced at this time.

• 1 Market sentiment is overwhelmingly positive towards the release.
• 2 The probability reflects strong confidence in OpenAI's development timeline.
• 3 Historical trends suggest timely releases for major AI updates.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, supporting the current market pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is minimal with 151 hours remaining until expiry.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

GPT-5.3 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.3, or a general-purpose variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.2, similar to the core-version progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2.

Model releases that do not resemble this core version progression, such as task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), reasoning models of the o-series family, as well as products labeled GPT-6 or similar, will not qualify for this market.

For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.

If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Label