GPT-5.3 released by March 31, 2026?

Market strongly favors the release of GPT-5.3 by March 31, 2026.

The prediction market shows a 100% probability for the release of GPT-5.3 by the specified date, indicating unanimous confidence among participants. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely at 97%, suggesting strong analytical backing for this outcome, though the edge indicates the market is fairly priced.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly positive towards the release.
• 2 The high confidence score reflects strong belief in the timeline.
• 3 Historical trends suggest timely releases from this developer.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, supporting the current market pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is minimal with 527 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

GPT-5.3 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.3, or a general-purpose variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.2, similar to the core-version progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2.

Model releases that do not resemble this core version progression, such as task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), reasoning models of the o-series family, as well as products labeled GPT-6 or similar, will not qualify for this market.

For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.