GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?

The market strongly favors the release of GPT-5.3 by March 8, 2026.

With a market probability of 100% for a YES outcome, there is a strong consensus that GPT-5.3 will be released by the specified date. The Pulse AI probability closely aligns at 98.5%, indicating robust confidence in this prediction. The edge of -1.5 suggests that the market is fairly priced based on current information.

• 1 Market shows overwhelming confidence with a 100% YES probability.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment at 98.5% probability.
• 3 The edge of -1.5 indicates a fair pricing of the prediction.
• 4 High confidence level of 95/100 suggests strong market belief.
• 5 Time to expiry is currently unknown, adding uncertainty to the timeline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

GPT-5.3 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.3, or a general-purpose variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.2, similar to the core-version progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2.

Model releases that do not resemble this core version progression, such as task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), reasoning models of the o-series family, as well as products labeled GPT-6 or similar, will not qualify for this market.

For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.

If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Label