Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31?

Iran is unlikely to be removed from the FIFA World Cup by March 31.

The prediction market shows a 37% probability for Iran's removal from the FIFA World Cup, with a majority favoring a 'NO' outcome at 63%. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, indicating a consensus that Iran will remain in the tournament.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors Iran remaining in the World Cup.
• 2 The probabilities suggest a balanced view on Iran's potential removal.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 The time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 The edge of 1.5 suggests the market is fairly priced with little bias.

Following US military strikes on Iran, FIFA has stated it will "monitor developments" regarding Iran's participation in the 2026 World Cup. You can read more about that here: https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/48060986/fifa-monitor-developments-iran-ahead-2026-world-cup.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran is officially disqualified, banned, withdrawn, or otherwise confirmed not to participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup by March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of resolution, a qualifying announcement made on or before March 31, 2026, will suffice, regardless of whether Iran ultimately participates in the tournament thereafter.

"Confirmed to not participate" is defined as an official announcement by FIFA, the Iranian Football Federation, or a governing body resulting in Iran's removal from the tournament, whether due to disqualification, withdrawal, suspension, or any other reason.

The resolution source will be official announcements from FIFA or the Iranian Football Federation, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.