Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?

Market indicates low probability of Pete Hegseth leaving as Secretary of Defense by March 31.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Pete Hegseth being ousted as Secretary of Defense by the end of March, with a 97.1% probability for 'NO.' The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for 'YES,' suggesting some uncertainty but overall confidence in his position.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors Hegseth remaining in position.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests some potential for volatility.
• 3 Historical trends show low turnover rates for high-profile defense positions.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, indicating consistent interest in this market.
• 5 Time to expiry is moderate, allowing for potential developments to influence outcomes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be the US Secretary of Defense for any period of time between December 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.