Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5)

Rybakina is heavily favored to win against Pegula in this matchup.

The market shows a strong consensus with a 99.95% probability favoring Rybakina to cover the -1.5 handicap against Pegula. The AI probability aligns closely at 99%, indicating a high level of confidence in this outcome, although the edge suggests the market is fairly priced. With 145 hours until expiry, there is ample time for sentiment to shift based on player performance or other factors.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors Rybakina.
• 2 Both market and AI probabilities indicate a high confidence level.
• 3 The edge of -0.95 suggests the market is well-balanced.
• 4 145 hours until expiry allows for potential changes in player conditions.
• 5 Liquidity appears stable, supporting the current pricing.

This market refers to the tennis match between Elena Rybakina and Jessica Pegula in the BNP Paribas Open, scheduled for March 13 2026.
This market will resolve to "Rybakina" if Elena Rybakina wins by 2 or more sets than Jessica Pegula, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Pegula."
If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50.
Resolution will be based on official WTA results.