Set Handicap: Shimabukuro (-1.5) vs Bolt (+1.5)

The market strongly favors a NO outcome for Shimabukuro vs Bolt.

The prediction market indicates a 99.95% probability for a NO outcome, suggesting that Shimabukuro is unlikely to cover the -1.5 handicap against Bolt. With a confidence level of 75/100 and a market edge of 0.95, the pricing appears to reflect the consensus view accurately. The time to expiry is 161 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment as the event approaches.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome for Shimabukuro.
• 2 Current probability estimates suggest minimal chance of a YES outcome.
• 3 The market edge indicates fair pricing with little room for mispricing.
• 4 Confidence level of 75 suggests moderate certainty in the market's assessment.
• 5 Time remaining allows for potential shifts based on new information.

This market refers to the tennis match between Sho Shimabukuro and Alex Bolt in the Miami Open, Qualification, scheduled for March 16 2026.
This market will resolve to "Shimabukuro" if Sho Shimabukuro wins by 2 or more sets than Alex Bolt, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Bolt."
If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50.
Resolution will be based on official ATP results.