Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?

Market leans towards 2026 not being the fourth-hottest year on record.

The market currently assigns a 28% probability to 2026 being the fourth-hottest year, with a stronger consensus at 72% for it not being the case. The Pulse AI slightly aligns with this view, suggesting a marginally higher probability for a hot year, but overall confidence remains moderate at 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a cooler outlook for 2026.
• 2 Historical data suggests variability in temperature records.
• 3 Market probability is closely aligned with Pulse AI predictions.
• 4 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts in climate data.

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.