Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

Market sees a low probability for 2026 being the hottest year on record.

The prediction market assigns a 10.5% probability to 2026 being the hottest year on record, indicating a strong consensus against this outcome. With a confidence level of 75/100 and a fair pricing edge, the market reflects a balanced view on temperature trends. The time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment based on climate developments.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards 'NO'.
• 2 Key factors include historical temperature trends and climate models.
• 3 The market appears fairly priced with no significant edge.
• 4 Liquidity is stable, reflecting consistent participant interest.
• 5 Time pressure is low with over 7000 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.