Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

The market suggests 2026 is unlikely to be the second-hottest year on record.

Current market probabilities indicate a 64% likelihood that 2026 will not be the second-hottest year, with a 36% chance for it to be so. The market appears fairly priced, reflecting a balanced sentiment and a moderate confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability shows a clear preference for 'NO'.
• 2 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 3 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts based on new data.
• 4 Current sentiment reflects a cautious outlook on future temperatures.
• 5 No edge suggests market pricing is aligned with AI predictions.

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.