Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?

The market predicts 2026 is unlikely to be the third-hottest year on record.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong belief that 2026 will not be the third-hottest year, with a NO probability of 76.75%. The Pulse AI also supports this view, suggesting a slight increase in the likelihood of YES, but overall confidence remains moderate at 60/100.

• 1 Market shows a strong NO sentiment regarding 2026's temperature ranking.
• 2 The probabilities are closely aligned between market and AI predictions.
• 3 Current confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in the forecast.
• 4 The time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in data.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 1.5.

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.