Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?

The market strongly favors 2026 being lower than the sixth-hottest year on record.

Current market probabilities indicate a 97.5% likelihood that 2026 will rank lower than the sixth-hottest year on record. The Pulse AI also supports this view with a 96% probability, suggesting a consensus on cooler expectations for that year. The confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate certainty in these predictions.

• 1 Market probability strongly favors a cooler 2026.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 4 An edge of 1.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts.

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.