Will Affirm Holdings (AFRM) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?

Market indicates low probability of Affirm Holdings joining the S&P 500 by March 2026.

The prediction market shows a predominant belief that Affirm Holdings will not be added to the S&P 500, with a 99.2% probability for 'NO'. In contrast, the Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance of 4.3% for 'YES', indicating some divergence in sentiment but overall consensus against the addition.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors 'NO' at 99.2%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a minority view with 'YES' at 4.3%.
• 3 Market probability suggests a well-priced expectation at 3.5 edge.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 65/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is short at 204 hours, adding urgency to market dynamics.

The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. The next rebalance is currently scheduled for March 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that the listed company will be added to the S&P 500 index by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the listed ticker must match the announced ticker added to the index.

An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).