Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?

Low probability for Andrea Kimi Antonelli to win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix.

The prediction market shows an 11% chance of Andrea Kimi Antonelli winning the race, with a consensus leaning towards a NO outcome at 89%. The market appears fairly priced, with a slight edge towards the NO side, indicating a moderate level of confidence in this prediction.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Probability estimates are closely aligned between market and AI predictions.
• 3 The market is considered fairly priced with an edge of 1.5.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 193 hours, adding urgency to market movements.

This is a polymarket on the winner of the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 15, 2026.

If the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Mar 22, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments.

Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.