Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31?

The market indicates a low likelihood of a U.S. ambassador being expelled by March 31.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the expulsion of a U.S. ambassador, with a 99% probability for 'NO.' The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting that significant geopolitical events would be needed to alter these probabilities.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 99%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market data, indicating strong consensus.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 suggests the market is fairly priced based on available information.
• 4 Confidence level of 65/100 indicates moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry is short at 40 hours, increasing urgency for any potential developments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.

For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.

Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.

Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.