Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

The market strongly favors Australia not winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Current market probabilities indicate a 0.35% chance of Australia winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with a strong consensus against it. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 1% for a win, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a slight edge of 0.65. Confidence in this assessment is high at 90 out of 100.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily leans towards a NO outcome.
• 2 Australia's historical performance in World Cups influences current odds.
• 3 The low probability suggests limited investor confidence in a win.
• 4 Current liquidity indicates a stable market environment.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for significant developments in team dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.