Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?

Market sees low probability for Bitcoin to hit $140,000 by 2026.

The prediction market indicates an 11% chance of Bitcoin reaching $140,000 by the end of 2026, with a consensus leaning towards 'NO' at 89%. The AI model aligns closely, suggesting a 13% probability for 'YES', indicating that the market is fairly priced with a slight edge towards the negative outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment is predominantly negative regarding Bitcoin's price surge.
• 2 Key factors influencing the market include regulatory developments and market liquidity.
• 3 Historical trends show Bitcoin's volatility, impacting long-term price predictions.
• 4 The market probability suggests a consensus that reaching $140,000 is unlikely.
• 5 Time pressure is significant with only 7160 hours until the market's expiry.

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.

Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.