Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?

Market predicts Bitcoin unlikely to reach $500,000 by end of 2026.

The prediction market shows a low probability of Bitcoin reaching $500,000 by December 31, 2026, with a 1.95% chance for 'YES' and 98.05% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a consensus that such a price milestone is improbable within the given timeframe.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Historical trends suggest Bitcoin has struggled to reach such high valuations.
• 3 Liquidity in the market appears stable, with no extreme fluctuations.
• 4 Time until expiry is substantial, allowing for potential market shifts.
• 5 Confidence level indicates a strong belief in the current market pricing.

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.

Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.