Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

Market strongly favors Bitcoin not replacing SHA-256 before 2027.

The prediction market indicates a high probability that Bitcoin will not replace SHA-256 before 2027, with a consensus of 99.25% against the change. The Pulse AI also supports this view, showing a 95.75% probability for the 'NO' outcome. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Current sentiment strongly favors the status quo of SHA-256.
• 2 Market probability suggests minimal belief in a shift before 2027.
• 3 Historical trends show SHA-256's dominance in cryptocurrency mining.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting confidence in existing predictions.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with over 7000 hours until expiry.

On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.