Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?

Market favors Alcaraz losing the 2026 Men's US Open with a 56.5% NO probability.

The prediction market indicates a higher likelihood of Carlos Alcaraz not winning the 2026 Men's US Open, with a 56.5% probability against a 43.5% chance of victory. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, slightly favoring the NO outcome at 55%. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a time to expiry of 4401 hours, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Market probability shows a slight edge against Alcaraz winning.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment, indicating skepticism.
• 3 Current confidence level suggests moderate certainty in predictions.
• 4 Time until the event allows for significant changes in player form.
• 5 Market appears balanced, indicating no strong bias in either direction.

The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.

If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.