Will Carlos Sainz Jr. win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?

Carlos Sainz Jr. is highly unlikely to win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix.

The prediction market indicates a 99.95% probability that Carlos Sainz Jr. will not win the race, suggesting strong skepticism about his chances. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 1% for a win, indicating consensus on his limited prospects. With a confidence level of 80/100 and a time to expiry of 93 hours, the market appears fairly priced.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome for Sainz's win.
• 2 Historical performance data suggests Sainz has faced challenges in similar races.
• 3 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent trader interest.
• 4 Time pressure is moderate with 93 hours remaining until the event.
• 5 The edge of 0.95 indicates that the market is likely accurately priced.

This is a polymarket on the winner of the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 15, 2026.

If the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Mar 22, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments.

Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.