Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?

Market leans towards Claude 5 not being released by April 30, 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 68.5% probability that Claude 5 will not be released by the specified date, while the Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher likelihood of release at 34.5%. The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3, reflecting a moderate level of confidence in the current probabilities.

• 1 Current market probability favors a NO outcome significantly.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly more optimistic view on the release.
• 3 The edge indicates the market is well-balanced in its pricing.
• 4 Confidence level suggests moderate certainty in the predictions.
• 5 Unknown time to expiry may affect market dynamics as the date approaches.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.

Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.