Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?

The market strongly predicts Claude 5 will not be released by February 14, 2026.

The current market probability indicates a 100% expectation that Claude 5 will not be released by the specified date. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 98% for a 'NO' outcome, suggesting a consensus against the release. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 80 out of 100.

• 1 Market consensus is overwhelmingly against a February 2026 release.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slight chance of release at 2%.
• 3 The edge of 2 indicates fair pricing in the market.
• 4 High confidence level suggests strong market conviction.
• 5 No imminent time pressure noted for the release.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by February 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.

Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.