Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?

The market shows a strong belief that Claude 5 will not be released by February 2026.

Currently, the prediction market indicates a 100% probability that Claude 5 will not be released by February 28, 2026. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI's assessment, which gives a 98% probability to the same outcome, suggesting a consensus on the unlikelihood of the release within the specified timeframe.

• 1 Market probability strongly favors a NO outcome at 100%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability slightly favors NO at 98%, indicating low expectations for release.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 2, suggesting stability in predictions.
• 4 Confidence level is high at 85/100, reflecting strong conviction in the NO outcome.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to potential future developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.

Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.