Will Claude 5 be released by February 6, 2026?

The market strongly predicts that Claude 5 will not be released by February 6, 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a 0% chance of Claude 5 being released by the specified date, aligning with the Pulse AI's assessment of a 1% chance for a release. The high confidence level of 85/100 suggests that participants are certain about this outcome, reflecting a consensus that release is unlikely.

• 1 Market shows a strong consensus against the release of Claude 5.
• 2 Pulse AI probability closely mirrors market sentiment.
• 3 High confidence level indicates strong belief in the NO outcome.
• 4 The edge suggests the market is fairly priced with little room for movement.
• 5 Lack of time pressure may contribute to the current stability in predictions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by February 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.

Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.