Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?

Low probability for Claude 5 release by March 15, 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the release of Claude 5 by the specified date, with a 98.7% probability for 'NO.' The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of release, suggesting that current expectations are aligned with the market's pricing.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability of release is significantly lower than the Pulse AI estimate.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with a minimal edge of 3.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 65/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding to the unpredictability of the market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.

Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.