Market favors crude oil staying above $75 by March 13.
The prediction market indicates a 78% probability that crude oil will not hit a low of $75 by March 13, suggesting a strong sentiment against this outcome. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, showing a slight inclination towards the possibility but still favoring the NO outcome. With a confidence level of 65/100 and a time to expiry of 41 hours, the market appears fairly priced.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day between March 9 and March 13, 2026, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
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