Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by March 13?

Market shows a close split on crude oil hitting $80 by March 13.

The prediction market indicates a 40.5% probability for crude oil to hit a low of $80 by March 13, while the Pulse AI slightly adjusts this to 45.5%. With a confidence level of 60/100 and only 47 hours until expiry, the market appears fairly priced with a close balance between yes and no outcomes.

• 1 Current market sentiment is closely divided on the outcome.
• 2 The probability reflects uncertainty in oil price movements.
• 3 Historical trends suggest volatility around key economic indicators.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable, supporting current odds.
• 5 Time pressure is increasing with less than two days until expiry.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day between March 9 and March 13, 2026, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.

Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.

Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.

Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.

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