Market favors crude oil settling below $85, with low confidence in a $85-$90 range.
The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood that crude oil will not settle in the $85-$90 range for March, with a probability of only 12.5% for a YES outcome. The AI model also aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting an 84% chance of a NO outcome, indicating that the market is fairly priced with a slight edge of 3.5.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that