Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Duke has a 20.5% chance to win the 2026 NCAA Tournament, indicating low confidence.

The market suggests a low probability of Duke winning the 2026 NCAA Tournament at 20.5%. With a majority of participants believing they will not win, the market appears fairly priced with no edge. The confidence level of 75 out of 100 indicates moderate certainty in this assessment.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily against Duke winning.
• 2 Historical performance and team dynamics may influence future probabilities.
• 3 Market pricing reflects a balanced view with no significant edge.
• 4 Time until the tournament allows for potential shifts in team strength.
• 5 Liquidity in the market suggests stable participant engagement.

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.

If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”.

If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.