Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Haaland's chances of winning the 2026 Ballon d'Or are currently low.

The prediction market shows an 11.5% probability for Haaland winning the 2026 Ballon d'Or, with a consensus leaning towards 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating that while there is some optimism, the overall outlook remains cautious.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 88.5%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market at 87% for 'NO'.
• 3 An edge of 1.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 5607 hours, allowing for potential shifts.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).