Will Esteban Ocon achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?

Low probability for Ocon to achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying.

The market indicates a very low probability of 0.05% for Esteban Ocon to secure pole position, suggesting minimal confidence in this outcome. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 1.55%, but still reflects a strong consensus against Ocon achieving pole. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a time to expiry of 101 hours, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Ocon's historical performance may not support a pole position expectation.
• 3 The market's edge suggests it is fairly priced with minimal arbitrage.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent trader interest.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 101 hours until the event.

This is a polymarket on the driver who achieves pole position in the Sprint Qualifying at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 13, 2026.

If the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Mar 20, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the Sprint Qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a driver sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that driver.

The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.