Will Esteban Ocon get pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?

Low probability for Ocon to secure pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese GP.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Esteban Ocon achieving pole position, with a 99.95% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance at 1.55% for 'YES', indicating some potential optimism, but overall confidence remains moderate at 60/100.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' for Ocon's pole position.
• 2 Current probabilities suggest minimal confidence in Ocon's chances.
• 3 The edge of 1.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 161 hours.
• 5 Historical performance data may influence future market shifts.

This is a polymarket on the driver who achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 28, 2026.

If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.

For example, if a driver sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that driver.

The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.